One of the best trainers in the country,
Bob Baffert, sends out undefeated
Secret Circle in the G2 Sham at
Santa Anita in just a few minutes. This race marks the 2012 debut for Secret Circle, who won the inaugral
Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint at Churchill Downs back in November and will try to stretch his blazing speed around 2 turns for the first time in his young career. I say he will do so easily as our best bet of the day. He has a distinct pace advantage, but unfortunately, will have very little value. Trifecta Billy says put him on top in the Trifecta with all other runners in 2nd and 3rd. I will go into further analysis later. This is the first of many
2012 G1 Kentucky Derby preps that will take place over the next 3 months. Time will tell if Secret Circle will be in the starting gate at the Twin Spires in Louisville the first weekend in May. Good luck!
As promised, here is my further analysis regarding this Kentucky Derby prep. I was in a parking lot when I made this post yesterday, and quickly posted before the Sham Stakes started. What I did not realize was that there was a late scratch which shortened the field to 5 runners total. This meant that the trifecta ticket that I placed on the blog became a $12 investment instead of a $20 investment. In this case, in a small field, a better investment would have been to put Secret Circle in 1st with the field, as well as 2nd with the field. The reasoning for this is that funny race set ups happen in very small fields. This is exactly what happened as Secret Circle did not get the lead, stalked from second, gamely fought in the stretch, but could not hold off the winner in the final stages. He only lost the 1 mile race by 5 feet. That 2nd place finish however, helped the trifecta pay $91.40 as the 2 longest shots in the 5 horse race ran 1st and 3rd. In fact, the winner who was 10-1 in the race was ridden by the red hot Garrett Gomez, who has won almost every graded stakes at Santa Anita in the early stages of this meet.
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