This is gonna be a long one so here we go. After many months of watching, studying and anticipating, the first Saturday in May is finally here. After spending virtually the entire last 2 days with the derby card, I put together a race by race analysis of all 13 races.
Race 1
#6 Mississippi Money
#2 Wicked Dreams
#5 Southern Ocean
This race is pretty wide open! Take all of them in a pick 3 or pick 4 or take IC1 at a price.
Race 2
#4 Worldly
#2 Bind
#6 El Grayling
Pretty sure these are the right three! Worldly drops out of a grade 2 fourth place finish while El Grayling ran fifth in the Grade # Illinois derby. Bind is right at home in Allowance $51k with a strong second last out in optional claiming $50k with a best last race beyer figure of 90
Race 3
#4 C J Russell
#2 Golden Triumph
#6 Hot Pursuit
The Baffert first timer gets Martin Garcia and looks much the best at special weight $49k. Could go off at a small price which should figure to be a big mistake. A small trifecta wheel with CJ on top of it and the #2 and #6 might yield big dollars.
Race 4
#7 Perfect Shirl
#8 Snow Top Mountain
#10 Silent Candy
#4 Persuading
Another wide open race on derby day. The #4 Persuading drops out of a grade 3 fourth place and several others also figure. Could be another all button race, if not at I would at least take these four and probably throw in the #1 and #9
Race 5
#3 Fusa Code
#5 Goodtimehadbyall
#2 Saratoga Red
#9 The Man Uptown
#4 Depeche Chat
Fusa Code has no derby contenders in front of him this time and the same goes for Saratoga Red who should respond much better here at this level. The #5 has proven it doesn't like to win all that much with a 2-14 mark. The lack of speed in this race leaves it pretty wide open but I would have to eventually land on these five and could throw out #5 and #9 as the winner but both have great chances to light the board
Race 6 5 furlong Twin Spires Turf Sprint Grade 3
#5 Chamberlain Bridge
#8 Bridgetown
#3 Custom for Carlos
#7 Early Return
#2 Regally Ready
Another tough derby day race, these five all look capable. Chamberlain Bridge beat Unzip me among others last November in the BC Turf Sprint going 5 furlongs right here at Churchill, while Bridgetown ran fourth by less than 3 lenths in the same race and has exhibited winning grade 3 class in the past and is 6-11 in the winners circle but has not won a graded race since the grade 3 '09. Custom for Carlos comes in with the monster 109 beyer behind Big Drama in the grade 3 Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream so he's been off 4 months but is 6-14 in the winners circle with 4 seconds and a third. Regally Ready has rattled off 3 wins in a row including the grade 3 win at Santa Anita over Camp Victory, and its won 5 of its last 7 running in some fairly impressive company at the allowance and stakes level. Early return is 16 of 20 in the money lifetime including 6 wins, 5 seconds and 5 thirds, but it will have to step it up a notch for its first graded race since May of '09 where it ran 6 furlongs at churchill finishing 10th by over 10 lengths.
Race 7 7 furlong Humana Distaff Grade 1
#7 Hilda's Passion
#4 Amen Hallelujah
#6 Twelve Twenty Two
#5 Shotgun Gulch
#3 Evening Jewel
Quite a talented group of ladies here. Hilda's Passion looks like she could be a single despite the company in this one. Shotgun Gulch, Amen Hallelujah and Evening Jewel all come out of the 7 furlong Grade 1 Madison on the poly at Keeneland finishing first, second and fourth respectively. Twelve Twenty Two has won 5 of 10 starts but has never faced graded competition before. Hilda bested #4 in their last meeting by 5 1/4 lengths in a grade 2 at Gulfstream Park while Shotgun Gulch beat a #4 by only a head in the Madison. Evening Jewel looks to get back to her 3 year old form that saw her second in the Kentucky Oaks to the grade 1 winner today, Blind Luck and her running lines are a virtual who's who of top fillies and mares on all surfaces. Her last few trips have been good in tough fields, a fourth a second and a win, and although this may not be her best distance, she loves the dirt at churchill and could be poised to upset these at a big price.
Race 8 Distaff Turf Mile Grade 2
#6 Aruna
#11 Never Retreat
#2 Upperline
#9 Wild Mia
#7 Fantasia (GB)
So here we go again with the tough wide open thing. These are the five top choices but I could easily settle on #6, #11 and #7. Upperline has seen some graded company but never the likes of these. Wild Mia has ran second to Aruna in a grade 2 and sixth by over 2 lengths in a grade 3 where Never Retreat finished third by less than a length. Fantasia beat Never Retreat two races back in a stakes race at Woodbine, then came in second by less than 2 to Never Retreat last out in a grade 2 going 1 mile and a sixteenth on the turf at Keeneland. Aruna is a classy 4 year old that ran and won stakes races in France before entering group company before pulling a fourth in group 3 and sixth in group 1 racing at Longchamps. Its three races in america all took place in 2010 at Saratoga, Belmont and lastly Churchill last November where it won the grade 2 over Wild Mia. It may need a race to get back on track, but if it doesn't it figures big here.
Race 9 7 furlong Churchill Downs Grade 2
#12 Here Comes Ben
#3 Apriority
#2 Smiling Tiger
#5 Mythical Power
#1 Aikenite
Ben had trouble last start here at CD which happened to be last November where he ran up the track by 12 lengths in the BC dirt mile. He looks to return to form here after the long lay off but in this company his abilities will be tested. Apriority is coming in with great form having won 4 of its last 6 with 2 seconds, one to Amazombie, the other last out in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap at Aqueduct to Morning Line. The second place horses in all its last 4 wins have gone on to win their next race including Aikenite in an allowance race at gulfstream where Apriority posted a 113 beyer and Aikenite a 102 beyer finishing 4 1/2 back. Last out for Aikenite was a grade 2 at keeneland where he won by just over 2 lengths after being steadied at 9/16. Smiling Tiger has won 2 graded races in a row including a victory over Captain Cherokee and Mythical Power in a grade 2 at Santa Anita and another grade 3 win at Oaklawn after getting off slow and caught 5 wide. Truly one of the classiest sprinters in the country, he will be tough to deal with as always for any horse. Mythical Power is in tough here again but Baffert is a miracle worker and Captain Cherokee just got snipped by Tiger on a wet fast track at Santa Anita back in February and then got the distant second to Amazombie in a grade 2 at Santa Anita just over a month ago.
Race 10 9 furlong Woodford Reserve Grade 1 $500k on Turf
#13 Battle of Hastings
#6 Smart Bid
#8 Doubles Partner
#1 Little Mike
#4 Moryba
#7 Get Stormy
#5 Prince Will I Am
Wow, this is just as wide open as the derby but with a few less horses. If Caracortado gets in here add him to this list but he will find it tough with these as well. The best way to cover this race is to take as many as you can starting with these 7 and adding a couple more like Court Vision, Teaks North, Expansion and even Al Khali. If I had to limit my selections here I would gravitate toward the IC selections Battle of Hastings and Smart Bid. The best play here is the all button. Find a few in the derby and take as many of these as you can. Little Mike has big things to prove with these nice beyers and Prince Will I Am could take lots of money along with possible chalk Court Vision. All the others could be a nice price in either of the pick 4's.
Race 11 The 137th Kentucky Derby 10 furlongs Grade 1 $2,000,000
#15 Midnight Interlude
#19 Nehro
#16 Animal Kingdom
#2 Brilliant Speed
#11 Master of Hounds
#8 Dialed In
#14 Shackleford
#4 Stay Thirsty
#17 Soldat
#1 ArchArchArch
I have settled on Midnight Interlude with Victor Espinoza and Bob Baffert as my top choice for this year. He has the best prep race of any coming into the derby and has worked lights out at churchill for Baffert. His 97 beyer puts him right in the thick of things and was probably light as is usually the case in Cali. Baffert looks for the kentucky daily double Oaks to Derby and has the lightly raced surprise horse ready to stalk and go with his derby winning jock Espinoza poetically earning the ride off the SA Derby performance and his prior Kentucky derby win with Baffert. If its not Midnight Interlude than one of these closers wins this thing. Although I see Nehro as the best of this bunch, they are all stretch runners and one of them will be up for that task. Shackleford should figure as long term speed and may hold out the distance but its doubtful he will have enough in the tank to hold off the likes of Nehro, AK, BS, MOH, DI or AAA. Stay Thirsty must improve tremendously from the 66 beyer to be a factor here but Pletcher is a master of winning big races and likely will have him ready despite the poor showing in Florida. Soldat must also rebound from the disappointing Florida derby 5th. If he can stalk this bunch and stay close his chances are good to hit the board but will have to hold off late charges from one of these closers. Master of Hounds could try to stay a bit closer to the front and grab the lead coming out of the final turn, then use its grit and determination that it showed in Dubai to sprint down the stretch and compete with the worlds best.
My HG $100 wager on formblog is as follows:
$0.50 tri wheel 15,19 / 15,19 / 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10,11,13,14,16,17
$0.50 tri wheel 15,19 / 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10,11,13,14,16,17 / 15,19
$0.50 tri wheel 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10,11,13,14,16,17 / 15,19 / 15,19
which costs a total of $39 and
$2 Exacta Box 2,4,11,14,15,16
for $60 trying to beat Nehro and Dialed In for the price and
$1 straight Exacta 2-11 Rosario to Gomez for the big pay.
I will blog some of my Pick 3's and 4's during derby day.
Race 12
#9 Streakin' Mohican
#11 Archie Trucker
#3 The Program
#6 Firm Resolve
Like Mohican here quite a bit. The Program is a better router than sprinter and Archie must step up quite a bit to do it here..Bridgmohan and #6 could be a nice price and will probably hit the board. With all the horses needed in the 10th and 11th I could settle on #9 and maybe play #6 as well.
Race 13
#4 Scuff
#3 Shrill
#1 Gentle Tap
Like all 3 of these in this race and the #2 and #5 deserve a bit of attention as well. Scuff's got the 74 beyer and has been very close its last 3 out with 2 seconds and a show by a total of less than 1 length. Shrill has just one start, a third by 2 at Keeneland 3 weeks ago and should be ready to improve. Gentle Tap has a second by 3/4 in its only start at Oaklawn at the $41k level so it will need to improve here at CD $49k, but looks capable. the #2 Shotgun Shine has a nice slop workout over the churchill surface and makes its fifth start after posting a third at Keeneland and a fourth and second at Gulfstream. The #5 Totemtale has a nice 4f work at Churchill recently and finishing second in its only race at Keeneland where it hopped and fell 14 lengths back before making a run to finish second by less than 8.
Good luck to everyone playing the derby. Thanks to Trifecta Billy for his expertise and to the guys and gals on the formblog who have laid out just about every angle there is for this years derby and examined them all with a fine tooth comb. I can only hope I reap the benefits of their insight.
DailyDub
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