2014 Kentucky Derby : Past & Present Performances : Will the "Underdog" Win the Derby as the "Favorite?"

   

   

California Chrome winning the SA Derby by 5 1/4 lengths (Photo by HOEP)

 The moment of anticipation that many of us wait for each spring has finally arrived. The 140th running of the Kentucky Derby is tomorrow. It's a time to study, focus, learn and remember. In horse racing terms it's time to delve into the "Past Performances."
When this grizzled handicapper looks at the past performances, I actually look at the Derby winners from the past first to look for commonalities and traits that tomorrows Kentucky Derby runners may possess. I will never forget how I felt "knowing" that Barbaro was going to win when he ran in the Derby. A few weeks ago I mentioned how I felt when I "knew" that Animal Kingdom was destined to win the Derby. It was the same with Big Brown in the Derby even though no horse had won from the #20 post in the races history. I, like many other handicappers "knew" these horses would win. I am not by any means bragging about my handicapping prowess. I can give you many examples of "knowing" I was right, then being humbled and proven that I was wrong. Sometimes we can lose focus and let our hearts get in the way of a sound decision, which is highly detrimental to the success of one who studies these amazing animals. I've been a speed handicapper through and through for decades, but often times have to let my "feel" for "knowing" the shape of a race, the human connections, and mostly the heart of the champion caliber horses who want to run as fast as they can for us, be my guide when making a selection.

     The big question surrounding tomorrows big race is can the "underdog" win as the favorite. You may be asking how can the solid Derby favorite be the underdog?" The story behind this amazing run for the roses by California Chrome, his owners, Perry Martin and Steve Coburn of DAP Racing, and of course his 77 year old trainer Art Sherman, who is making a bid to eclipse the great Charlie Whittingham's record as the Derby's oldest trainer, is extremely compelling. The owners bought a mare who won one race and was "unwanted" for a mere $8,000. Then they paid a "whopping" $2,500 to breed her with Lucky Pulpit. Millions and millions of dollars are spent by people with very deep pockets each year to breed, develop, train and then race on the highest level in the world. The fact that Perry and Steve, obviously a couple of great guys with a passion for thoroughbreds, are on the verge of winning the most prestigious race in the country on Saturday absolutely makes this handicapper smile.

     I have another angle to contend with regarding Art Sherman, who as an 18 year old kid, traveled to the Kentucky Derby by rail with the legendary Swaps who went to the 1955 Derby and shocked the world by beating the heavy east coast favorite Nashua. Ironically, I found Nashua in California Chromes pedigree on his dams side. I have "known" for decades that Art Sherman is a tremendous horse trainer. His winning percentage in California is outstanding, and he is an excellent horseman. Art has stated that he would never come to the Derby, unless he thought he had a horse who could contend. He does this year. Here they are. It only took Art 59 years to get back. How can one not root for this team to succeed?

     We are about to find out whether or not this team of "underdogs" can go back east and beat the country's best 3 year old colts, as the "favorite." It kind of  "feels" like a "past performance" to me. It's "Deja vu all over again," as Yogi Berra once said. Can California Chrome become the first Cal-bred to win the Kentucky Derby since 1962? Of course he can. He doesn't know about any of us pundits, nor does he care. He just loves to run. He loves to run very, very fast. I "know" he has won his last four races by over 24 1/4 lengths combined. I "know" that he ran the 4th fastest Santa Anita Derby time in history under a hand ride, geared down in the final 1/16th of a mile with absolutely no urging in the stretch. "I "know" that he is undefeated with Victor Espinoza aboard. When they step onto the track Saturday be sure and watch his demeanor, his presence, his attitude, and just get to "know" him. If he looks like a champion, we will "know" that we've stayed focused, we will "know" that we've stayed positive, and we will "know" to meet one another in the winners circle after the "underdog" favorite wins the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby.


Intelligent Choice selection for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby

IC1-----California Chrome----Art Sherman-----Victor Espinoza




 The last piece of the puzzle is putting winning tickets together. We will post the IC selections for the entire card later tonight, or very early Saturday morning. We'll also present some betting, and ticket construction strategies, so be sure and check back later. Trifecta Billy wishes you all the luck in the world!