A big Saturday of racing on the grass at Arlington Park this weekend includes the 1m 3/16 Grade 3 Modesty Handicap for $150,000, the Grade 2 American Derby $200,000 for 3 year olds which is also a 1m 3/16, and the 1m 1/4 Grade 3 Arlington Handicap for $150,000. These races run 8, 9 and 10 on the card and Arlington does offer $0.50 pick 3's. Here's what the IC system came up with and a short analysis of each horse in the race. I will post my wagers at the very end.
Race 8 - 9.5 furlongs Turf Grade 3 Modesty Handicap $150,000 F&M 3 year olds and up
IC1- #3 Wasted Tears
IC2- #5 La Gran Bailadora
IC3- #6 My Baby Baby
Wasted Tears is lone speed here and My Baby Baby figures to try and stay as close as it can, everyone else hopes they can close on her but it is doubtful they will.
#1 looks a bit cheap and hasn't been able to step up at the stakes level.
#2 has a couple Grade 3 wins and should get distance but could be far back early
#3 lone speed will wire field easily if she gets away.
#4 class of the field will have to run very hard to keep from falling too far back early
#5 great closing power on poly but 0-6 with a place and a show on grass, tri and exacta potential
#6 comes off grade 3 win at CD following a second by 1 to Kertana at KEE needs to stay close though
#7 may be in over her head but should like the stretch out, will struggle to keep up early
#8 gets distance easy but class is in question and must stay close enough to strike in the stretch
To me this one looks like all Wasted Tears and the battle will be for place and show money.
Race 9 - 9.5 furlongs Turf Grade 2 American Derby $200,000 3 year olds
IC1- #7 Forest Mouse
IC2- #4 Willcox Inn
IC3- #6 Derby Kitten
Much tougher battle here with no speed out front, the rail horse could get the lead early while IC1 figures to be on or near the lead as well.
#1 Ireland shipper stretches out quite a bit, gets 1st lasix and rail with no speed, could choose to lead this
#2 59.4 work June 25th could show early speed this time, steps way up in turf class from maiden $28k
#3 can stalk this bunch, ran strong second in 200k stakes at IND behind #8 Lil Bit O'Fun
#4 won by 2.5L on Yielding AP turf at 8.5f with dangerous jockey and trainer at Arlington
#5 ran 1st or 2nd 5 of 6 times and should get distance easy, 48.4 work july 6, should push pace a bit
#6 Maker only 9% graded stakes, horse is 1/8 winning on turf and distance may be too much
#7 steps way up here but 2-2 on turf with 3 wins in a row coming in, could be cheap speed, distance ?'s
#8 Goncalves/Proctor tough at IND comes off $200k win, should get more ground, hard stretch run in last
#9 will need top performance to figure here, gets Bridgmohan, ran second to #4 by 2.5L last out
#10 couldn't do it against lesser in allowance, gets distance well, Kenneally trained and Malibu Moon sire
Tough race here, I have reservations about #7 Forest Mouse while #8 Lil Bit O'Fun appears in good form coming in with a top speed rating and talented jock Goncalves. Leparoux mounts Derby Kitten for Maker who struggles in graded races while Leparoux sits 0-5 at AP with a second thus far in 2011. #5 is very well bred with parents Giants Causeway and the Anabaa dam Abundance. Lanerie comes of a big CD meet finishing second amongst the jocks, the horse's speed figures but it is 0-4 on the turf with 3 seconds and may be headed for the grass closet as a hanger while it has run 2-2 on fast dirt. #4 Willcox Inn figures here with Stidham firing 9-31 29% winners at AP so far, it comes off a 2.5L win on yielding AP turf going 8.5 furlongs for $100k, the #9 Suntracer ran second and although it appears cheap, it could be ready to get its best out for the big day. #3 Chalice, son of Pulpit ran second to Goncalves on the #8 Lil Bit O'Fun on the yielding Indiana turf last out going a mile, and should like the added distance but lack of pace could hinder its closing ability. #2 Zoebear is 1-8 with its only victory coming last out in Maiden $28k company on Arlington turf, it will need its best performance to play a part in this one. #1 Cannon Hill is the mystery horse from Ireland getting lasix for the first time.
Race 10 - 10 furlong Turf Grade 3 Arlington Handicap $150,000 3 year olds and up
IC1- #7 Juniper Pass
IC2- #10 Mister Marti Gras
IC3- #1 Proceed Bee
#1 won 11 of 22 races and 3 for 7 turf wins, 2 nice works coming in figures to push this pace early
#2 laid off 4 months after 7 by 17 grade 2 run at Meydan has class and could be deep closer in field
#3 good turf speed, 3rd start off a short lay off and trainer switch, struggled and finished early goin 1.5 miles
#4 Dynaformer son has solid closing ability and speed ratings figure at this distance, 3rd start off layoff
#5 Motion horse 4 of 5 lifetime and 2 of 3 turf with a second, comes from German circuit, gets 1st time lasix
#6 troubled 4th last out in Grade 3 12 furlong at Churchill, poor works, son of A.P. Indy needs top effort
#7 Grade 2 turf win at SA in April going 1 3/4 miles, class act, trainer 2 for 4 in stakes, jock is turf specialist
#8 In deep here, speed ratings dont figure, doesn't ship well but could vie for early lead if pushed forward
#9 Leparoux/Maker runs up front and has some turf class to push the pace, Maker 9% in graded races
#10 top speed rating in Optional Claimer at CD win over Lonesome Street, Bridgmohan/Block team up
The 4 year old son of Lemon Drop Kid Juniper Pass looks for the graded stakes hat trick after chalking up to grade 2 wins at Santa Anita, the last by a head over a 1 3/4 mile firm course. On the shelf for a couple months shouldn't be an issue and Blanc takes the helm again after a 5th place showing back in February at SA against much tougher foes including Champ Pegasus, Bourbon Bay and Haimish Hy who ran first second and third respectively. #5 ships in from Germany for Graham Motion and has never ran worse than second but has not seen this type of company before. #8 Amun Re should show early speed to take on any insiders that push for the lead while #9 Dean's Kitten is likely to follow on his tail to the front. #1 Proceed Bee will probably be content to stalk on the rail to save some ground but must give its top performance to be there at the end. Clement should have #2 Interaction ready to go after the march lay off from Meydan. 5 of 10 on the turf for $393k, it was sent to lead last time and couldn't hold, and settled in the rear twice before that. Shortening up this time from 12.5 furlongs to 10 furlongs it might have the stam to stay in front if asked but probably prefers to avoid a duel that may be imminent here.
Here are my plays for the Arlington card on Saturday, best of luck to everyone!
Race 8 - $0.50 Pick 3: 3/All/1-7-10 cost $15
Race 8 - $1 Trifecta: 3/4-5-6/All cost $18
Race 8 - $1 Exacta: 3/4-5-6 cost $3
Race 8 - Win: #3 Wasted Tears
Race 10 - $1 Trifecta: 7-10/4-7-10/All cost $32
Race 10 - $1 Exacta Box: 4-7-10 cost $6
Race 10 - W/P: #4 Juniper Pass
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